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European Morning Update 29th April 2008

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:07:16 -0400
A waiting game...

Releases from Australia:

Prior Current
Q1 NAB Business Confidence +6 - 4

Confidence that has been waning around the rest of the globe has overtaken Australia also now with NAB’s index falling to its lowest level in 7 years. According to the bank this is due to “The combination of much tighter financial conditions, falling global equity markets and the
global credit crunch has produced a sharp fall in business confidence. The survey is signaling that the Australian economy may be slowing faster than we had expected.”

That echoes the stories elsewhere and highlights how former confidence has under-estimated the impact of the most significant economic crisis in many years.

However, the NAB retains a forecast for both this and next year that forecasts growth of 2.75%. Note that we have seen forecasts having to be downgraded across the globe. The bank also forecasts that the RBA will retain an unchanged interest rate policy through this year but make cuts of 1.25% next year.

The Aussie has been mildly soft on the back of the news but interest in opening positions is lacking due to tomorrow’s figures from the States.

The following economic releases are due today:

March
Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
Italian PPI (MoM) +0.5%
Italian PPI (YoY) +5.8%

April
French Consumer Confidence Indicator - 37.0
Italian Retailers’ Confidence General
Italian Services Survey
Bloomberg Italian Retail PMI
Bloomberg French Retail PMI
Bloomberg German Retail PMI
Bloomberg Euro-zone Retail PMI
U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Report
German IFO Business Climate Survey by industry
U.S. Consumer Confidence 62.0

Yesterday was pretty much a nothing day. No critical levels that would confirm extension in either direction occurred and thus we’re left with pretty much the same picture as described yesterday. Well, having said that there are one or two pointers that provide more risk weighting in the Pound and Yen.

The Pound reached its target perfectly and does seem to provide a strong argument for a triangle under development. This implies more losses today with the 1.9780-00 and 1.9700-30 areas being the two support areas that should initially cause a pullback and the lower that should complete the 4th leg of the triangle and thus suggest one more correction higher before the entire picture becomes quite strongly Pound bearish.

The situation in the Yen is interesting. Well, really the clue is in Euro-Yen which again bounced nicely from the recent highs and this actually implies a quite strongly bearish outlook. However, this is unlikely to be totally direct. Today looks as if it could retest the 162.66 low and probably extend a little further to the 162.30-40 area. However, that should cause a pullback but which should find it tough to get back above 163.00 before the stronger part of the decline.

Now this clearly means that either my bullish Dollar-Yen view is incorrect or the Euro is going to take a dive. The latter is clearly my preference but timing is key here. It seems unlikely that the Euro can lose out that much ahead of tomorrow’s GDP and FOMC decision, but that causes some confusion over the intervening period and how Euro-Yen and its constituent parts develop.

My preference has been for a slightly deeper pullback in Dollar-Europe but that will mean that Dollar-Yen will need to ease off. That’s not impossible assuming the 104.81 high was a critical high but we’ll need to see a break below 103.48-73 to see those losses. If we do then a move back to 102.41 or as much as 101.84 could be seen.

If the Euro decides to collapse sooner then we’ll have to re-arrange the implications for Dollar-Yen vis-à-vis Euro-Yen.

Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 104.81-16 1.5733-86 1.0429-70 2.0025-47
Res: 104.30-40 1.5668-02 1.0380-00 1.9964-97

Spt: 103.48-73 1.5583-20 1.0300-25 1.9850-89
Spt: 102.66-17 1.5497-10 1.0213-50 1.9750-80