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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

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What makes a good Trading Strategy?

Ask most NEW traders, and they will tell you about some moving average or combination of indicators or a chart pattern that they use. This is, as the more experienced trader knows, an entry point and not a strategy.

Any trader who is more experienced will say a strategy should also include money management, risk control, perhaps stop losses and of course, an exit point. They might also say that you must let your profits run and cut your losses short. A well-read trader will also tell you that your strategy should fit with your trading personality.

BUT there is one other vital ingredient that many traders forget - and that is to fully understand the "personality" of what you trade. Some traders specialise in say, gold or Brent crude or currencies or they might specialise in a particular index such as the FTSE 100 or the Dow but many traders choose to trade shares. Indeed some traders dabble in a bit of everything. I think this is the area that causes many traders to fail or at least not reach their full potential.

In my view: You absolutely MUST specialise.

I am sure that on the surface most people would say that sounds sensible but here is why it is a MUST!

Superficially, many charts look the same. I bet if you had not seen the charts for some time and someone where to show you a chart of Brent Crude over 6 months and then a chart of Barclays PLC over the same 6 months you would be hard pushed to say which was which purely on the look of the chart.

However, I bet that if you found a trader who trades ONLY Barclays day in and day out and also found someone who trades ONLY Brent Crude day in and day out, both of them would easily identify which was which. WHY?

Because every share, index or commodity has it�s own "personality".

Some will be volatile intra-day, some will follow their sector or the main index (market followers), some will do their own thing, some will spike up and down regularly, some will stop at key moving averages and some will just plough through. Some will move by 5% on average before they retrace and some by 2%. Some will gap up or down regularly, some will not. You get the idea!

Therefore, no matter how good you are at analysing indicators, moving averages, trends and patterns, the same strategy WILL NOT work for everything. I would go so far as to say that a strategy that works well for Bovis Homes, for example, is likely NOT to work for BT Group - they have very different "personalities".

So let�s return to our question: What makes a good trading strategy? Let me answer with a series of ten questions that you need to find answers to, in order to build a REALLY GOOD strategy.

1. What do you want to trade (share, index, commodity, currency, etc)? If your answer is shares (plural) I would urge you to pick one typical share at this stage to really specialise. You can add more later.
2. What "personality" does that share, index etc have?
3. What entry system is the most reliable for that share?
4. What stop loss system is the most effective for that share?
5. What average risk will a typical trade carry?
6. What exit system works well for that share?
7. What is your trading personality (attitude to risk, losses, discipline, how much do you worry etc) and can you trade that strategy without overriding it?
8. What timescale do you want to trade? (Using intra-day or end of day data)
9. How much data do you keep on past trades to help identify strategy weaknesses?
10. How does all this fit with your trading objectives?

Once you have an answer to each question you need to do one final thing. Make sure all those things fit together and complement each other. For example, if the ideal stop loss position represents a big average risk and conflicts with your own attitude to risk, you need to start again. If you will override your exit point because greed makes you hang in for more, you need to think again. Perhaps you shouldn�t trade that stock in the first place - look for one with a different "personality" which will lead to a strategy you can trade comfortably.

It is a long and sometimes painful iterative journey. You might need to go round and round in ever decreasing circles over a long time. Testing and refining, testing and refining before you can truly have a reliable and repeatable strategy that REALLY WORKS for you.

THEN, you can look for other things to trade that have the same "personality" as your specialist stock, index, commodity or currency.

But if it were easy, everyone would be doing it right?

Good luck and enjoy your trading.

David Graeme-Smith
Short Swing Trading
http://www.shortswingtrading.com/

Let's Talk About Forex

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With a daily turnover of over trillions of dollars, the Foreign Exchange market conducts more than three times the aggregate amount volume of the United States Equity and Treasury markets combined. The Forex market is an over-the-counter market where buyers and sellers conduct foreign exchange business using different means of communication.

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Forex money management is where most traders go wrong in almost all cases leaving only a few as the winner at the end of the day. Money management and discipline of mind is what makes or brakes a trader at the end of the day, not the elementary entry and exit method.

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A Forex broker is a broker dealing in foreign exchange, just like real estate broker who deals in real estate and properties. Simply, a Forex broker is an advisor who advises you about the forex market. However, the Forex market is not the perfect place to play with as a novice and beginner as there are many criticalities involved along with much risk bearing capacities. Novices can very quickly get their fingers badly burnt. But inexperience is not the only reason to consider using a Forex broker to trade in the high-risk international currencies market.

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The beginner forex trader should check the news articles that the broker has posted before beginning a new trading session. Profiting from Forex news could be one strategy the beginner forex trader could profit from. The news could be informative and this may affect the trader's choice to which currency pairs and the positions to take for the trading session. Profiting from Forex trading via the Internet has resulted in a great deal of interest by small traders previously locked out of this enormous marketplace. The FOREX market is less regulated than other financial markets. There is always risk in speculation, in any traded financial instrument whether they are regulated or unregulated.

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Forex Snippets

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Forex Marketing
Acquiring the knowledge of the market is not difficult for anyone with average intelligence after a few years of hard study in the market. But it is neither the level of intelligence nor the knowledge that decides the outcome of the market operations of a trader. It is the decision making process that is so hard for most traders to overcome and that is the main reason for a success or a failure for all the traders. Some find it easy to make decisions and stick to it and most find it so hard to make decisions and stick to it. Unfortunately, any decision making process in trading is a pain-taking process and humans tend to avoid pains and go for pleasures even if for temporary ones.

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Retail sales reports are the third economic factor that is often used in analyzing the Forex. This is the total receipt of all retail stores in any country. Usually, this measurement is not every single retail sale, but is a sample of diverse retail stores throughout the country. This is considered a very reliable and important economic indicator because of the consumer spending patterns that are expected throughout the year. This factor is usually more important that lagging indicators and gives a clearer picture of the state of the economy in any country.

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So, the Forex broker is an advisor who advises you about the forex market and allows you to work for 24 hours a day with major currencies like EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF etc against the US dollar on the spot, i.e. according to the current prices on the forex international exchange market. But the level of profits depends only on your abilities as well as your timely decision.
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Forex Trade Stories

European Morning Update 29th April 2008

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:07:16 -0400
A waiting game...

Releases from Australia:

Prior Current
Q1 NAB Business Confidence +6 - 4

Confidence that has been waning around the rest of the globe has overtaken Australia also now with NAB’s index falling to its lowest level in 7 years. According to the bank this is due to “The combination of much tighter financial conditions, falling global equity markets and the
global credit crunch has produced a sharp fall in business confidence. The survey is signaling that the Australian economy may be slowing faster than we had expected.”

That echoes the stories elsewhere and highlights how former confidence has under-estimated the impact of the most significant economic crisis in many years.

However, the NAB retains a forecast for both this and next year that forecasts growth of 2.75%. Note that we have seen forecasts having to be downgraded across the globe. The bank also forecasts that the RBA will retain an unchanged interest rate policy through this year but make cuts of 1.25% next year.

The Aussie has been mildly soft on the back of the news but interest in opening positions is lacking due to tomorrow’s figures from the States.


The following economic releases are due today:

March
Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
Italian PPI (MoM) +0.5%
Italian PPI (YoY) +5.8%

April
French Consumer Confidence Indicator - 37.0
Italian Retailers’ Confidence General
Italian Services Survey
Bloomberg Italian Retail PMI
Bloomberg French Retail PMI
Bloomberg German Retail PMI
Bloomberg Euro-zone Retail PMI
U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Report
German IFO Business Climate Survey by industry
U.S. Consumer Confidence 62.0


Yesterday was pretty much a nothing day. No critical levels that would confirm extension in either direction occurred and thus we’re left with pretty much the same picture as described yesterday. Well, having said that there are one or two pointers that provide more risk weighting in the Pound and Yen.

The Pound reached its target perfectly and does seem to provide a strong argument for a triangle under development. This implies more losses today with the 1.9780-00 and 1.9700-30 areas being the two support areas that should initially cause a pullback and the lower that should complete the 4th leg of the triangle and thus suggest one more correction higher before the entire picture becomes quite strongly Pound bearish.

The situation in the Yen is interesting. Well, really the clue is in Euro-Yen which again bounced nicely from the recent highs and this actually implies a quite strongly bearish outlook. However, this is unlikely to be totally direct. Today looks as if it could retest the 162.66 low and probably extend a little further to the 162.30-40 area. However, that should cause a pullback but which should find it tough to get back above 163.00 before the stronger part of the decline.

Now this clearly means that either my bullish Dollar-Yen view is incorrect or the Euro is going to take a dive. The latter is clearly my preference but timing is key here. It seems unlikely that the Euro can lose out that much ahead of tomorrow’s GDP and FOMC decision, but that causes some confusion over the intervening period and how Euro-Yen and its constituent parts develop.

My preference has been for a slightly deeper pullback in Dollar-Europe but that will mean that Dollar-Yen will need to ease off. That’s not impossible assuming the 104.81 high was a critical high but we’ll need to see a break below 103.48-73 to see those losses. If we do then a move back to 102.41 or as much as 101.84 could be seen.

If the Euro decides to collapse sooner then we’ll have to re-arrange the implications for Dollar-Yen vis-à-vis Euro-Yen.


Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 104.81-16 1.5733-86 1.0429-70 2.0025-47
Res: 104.30-40 1.5668-02 1.0380-00 1.9964-97

Spt: 103.48-73 1.5583-20 1.0300-25 1.9850-89
Spt: 102.66-17 1.5497-10 1.0213-50 1.9750-80

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